In an interview in the Verge, Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx envisions a future of cities with AVs, discussing the implications for regulations and safety. How will shifts in transportation affect the rest of society? How can AVs enhance communities and improve access in underserved communities? Are we prepared for AVs?
This is probably one of the fundamental questions to how the future of AVs will roll out. This article from Slate looks at three basic scenarios of AV ownership and use: Private ownership (what we have now), fleet ownership for private rides (think Uber/Lyft), and fleet ownership for shared rides (think Uber Pool).
While the article lays out convincing parameters for these scenarios, it doesn’t address the potential for differentiated models based on density. Cities may lean towards fleet ownership and/or shared rides, but as we move further and further out into the suburbs, fleet management will be more difficult to do efficiently and profitably. This seems like it would push towards more private ownership in these locations. If so, some of the parking related benefits of AVs – to name only one of many issues – may be uneven across urban areas.
This article looks at the very real possibility that AVs will actually move slower in central cities than cars do today. This is based on two notions – first, the idea that AV’s risk averse algorithms will understandably slow them down or stop them whenever a pedestrian or cyclist crosses the street. Second, the idea that pedestrians and cyclists – now sure that cars will be stopping – will step off the curb or into traffic whenever they please, creating havoc for the efficiency of automobiles. Author Adam Millard-Ball asks us to imagine AVs trying to get through Manhattan while obeying all traffic rules and stopping with every pedestrians crossing at will.
The article points to a key issue regarding AVs in dense environments and how the interaction with other modes will severely hamper some of the largely claimed increases in speed. It would seem that these increases will most probably exist in suburban and exurban areas, but not as much in central cores. How does the speedy highway leading into the city deal with the congestion glut as cars enter slower networks downtown?
In another positive story about transit and ridesourcing working together instead of in competition, Boston’s MBTA is using Bridj on-demand shuttle service for late-night trips. This is a strategy to compensate for recently limited late-night service. Not only will this fill a need, but also lets the agency gather data on use that can lead to more efficient future service.
A few positive developments for the future of transit today! As we have discussed before – the question of transit + ridesourcing (Uber/Lyft) as opposed to transit vs. ridesourcing will be one of the most fundamental questions to how cities develop in an AV future. If there is collaboration, accessibility can increase tremendously without (as much) increase in congestion or a push towards sprawl. If they are in competition – and ridesourcing triumphs in a way that makes transit unfeasible – we are in for the darkest of futures (see previous posts for more on this). So now – onto the news:
In Seattle, Uber is endorsing the cities $54 Billion (with a ‘B’) transit ballot initiative. Uber has not traditionally endorse ballot initiatives one way or another, but the fact they are supporting transit, coupled with the partnerships they are developing with cities to work cooperatively in the mobility world points to a promising future. Of interest in the article is also Uber’s Seattle General Manager’s quote that Uber’s mission is to “reduce congestion and pollution by moving more people with fewer cars, and provide better mobility options for all people living in the region.” Uber and transit combining to be mobility/accessibility companies, and not ridesource and transit individually, is a large step in the right direction.
In that same vein, this article talks about AV paratransit being developed in Hillsborough, Florida – launch expected in 2017. Could be a great option for hardest to serve and for first/last mile access to transit.
This article looks at what cars mean to us culturally and how that would change with AV’s. It reads as a bit of a swansong – a distant echo of people lamenting their relationship to their horses was about to change as cars first took over cities.
As strange as it may seem to those of us who came of age pre-2010 – and it remains to be seen – but it is hard to imagine the eight year old of today growing up to a moment in their early twenties when dumping thousands of dollars into a car seems like a good idea – not with uber, lyft, car2go, car share, bike share, etc etc out there.
Wired just published this article which gathers views of thinkers from around the country. A quick, light read that gives some broad strokes of what we might expect.
Source: SWA/Kinder Baumgardner
This article talks about how the combination of AV’s and E-Commerce will create havoc for the retail industry. More of our shopping will go online while bricks and mortar stores will start to act more like distribution warehouses as AV’s are sent to run errands and pick up things we need. This will have large implications for how retail works in urban areas – where it is located, how much of it we need built, and a shift (already occurring) from retail being based on a need to retail being proposed as an experience.
Large implications for activity centers throughout urbanized areas as many of them have retail as a core vitality generator.
Related to the previous post, here is another positive push for transit and shared mobility working together and not in competition. This report put out by TCRP talks about how transit agencies can re-imagine themselves as mobility agencies that use a wide range of mobility options (typical transit, paratransit, rideshare, ridesourcing, carshare, bikeshare, etc). Excellent thinking and research in there.
There is also an accompanying webinar recording here that summarizes the report. This webinar talks about all of the possible, progressive futures, but also warns how detrimental a future with only AV cars (and no transit/paratransit) would be.
In another hopeful move that transit and ridesourcing services like Uber and Lyft will be combining efforts to better provide accessibility and mobility for all, FTA this week announced nearly $8 million in grants – mostly to transit agencies – to incorporate mobility-on-demand into their agencies. Take a look at the funded projects here.
USDOT Secretary Foxx says we may be the last generation to own cars as technology and ridesourcing takes off. One big motivator- we get to save a large chunk of the 18% of household budget that currently goes toward car ownership.
Zack Kanter’s post on AV’s is a well researched take on what the rollout of AV’s will look like. He describes the steps we will move through and some of the immediate fallout of these steps. Good series of citations (for those looking for more than opinions about these things).
Many have talked about the long term implications of ride-sharing companies like Uber – Summit, New Jersey is the first example in the US where a municipality is subsidizing rideshare trips as a way to reduce parking demand in Park-and-Ride facilities. See the article from Buzzfeed here.
A good example of how Uber may actually be a boon to transit and not a replacement for it.
This is a two part series from City Observatory that talks about the projected cost of autonomous vehicles and the effects this will have on their adoption (and their marketshare). The first article cityobservatory.org/how-much-will-autonomous-vehicles-cost/ has a collection of cost estimates from various sources. The second article http://cityobservatory.org/price-of-autonomous-cars/ looks at the effects of pricing on everything from AV’s effect on transit to the behavioral effects of our being more aware of the cost of trips (as we may no longer have that sunk cost of the automobile).
The Urbanism Next Blog is focused on how changes in technology are reshaping the ways we live, move, and spend our time in cities. We are interested in emerging technologies such as autonomous vehicles (AV’s), the rise of E-Commerce, and the proliferation of the sharing economy. While other parts of the blogosphere are looking at the technological aspects of these advances, we are interested in the effects the they will have on cities and city design.
Urbanism Next is meant to be a source for those interested in technology and the built environment and is particularly targeted towards urban designers, architects, planners, landscape architects, and developers. Visit the blog for links to relevant articles, commentaries on emerging trends, and critical thinking around the future of our cities.
The Urbanism Next Blog is part of the Sustainable Cities Initiative’s (SCI) Urbanism Next Research Initiative at the University of Oregon.
